When Prophecy Fails
from A Rock In My Shoe
by Richard Bradley
www.arockinmyshoe.com
When the Bush administration continues
to insist that there are weapons of mass destruction in Iraq and it now appears
to almost everyone else that there are not, does it mean they are lying to us?
Some are saying so, yet I would propose a different explanation. I’m no
psychiatrist, but I’m wondering if this administration is suffering from
“psychological anxiety” brought on by the contradictions between their
continued beliefs and reality—a phenomenon known as cognitive dissonance.
I was recently able to find an out-of-print copy of the classic
social psychology text, When Prophecy Fails, by Leon Festinger and his
colleagues at the University of Minnesota. Published in 1956, the book chronicles
the events surrounding a group of U.F.O. aficionados who were predicting that
the world would come to an end on December 21 (the year is not specified). It
was the belief of those in the group that they and a few select others would
be rescued at the last moment. A flying saucer was to arrive and take them to
another, presumably kinder and gentler, galaxy, while the surface of the earth
would be submerged by a catastrophic flood.
The amazing thing about the story is that when the predicted
disaster did not materialize the group continued to hold strongly to their beliefs.
In fact, they rationalized their convictions and came up with “good”
reasons why the world had not been destroyed—yet.
According to Festinger, et. al., when prophecy fails there are
five conditions that must be met in order for cognitive dissonance to occur.
The similarities between the flying saucer cult of the early 1950’s and
the Bush administration today are striking:
1. There must be conviction. Not only must the
person believe deeply, his belief must also relate to impending events. In the
case of the flying saucer crowd it was the destruction of the world by flood.
In the post-9/11 administration the deep conviction has been related to the
“imminent threat” of terrorism—specifically, weapons of mass
destruction unleashed by Iraq.
2. There must be a commitment to this conviction.
The person holding the belief must take some form of action that cannot be easily
undone. Thus many of the people who were predicting the catastrophic flood quit
their jobs and sold their property in preparation for their departure in the
spacecraft. The Bush administration took us to war and sacrificed human life.
Interestingly, Festinger points out, the more extreme the action taken the greater
the commitment to the belief becomes.
3. The conviction must be amenable to unequivocal disconfirmation.
In other words, conditions must exist under which the belief can actually be
tested or judged—and possibly proven wrong. This will put the believer
in a situation where he will be required to account for his behavior. Clearly,
the Bush administration knew that a war against Iraq would test its belief.
4. Such unequivocal disconfirmation must occur.
The predicted event never happens. There must be no mistaking of that fact and
the believers must recognize it. In the case of the predicted flood, the believers
sat in silence as their moment of destiny came and went—without them. It
was patently obvious to all of them that something was wrong. Need I continue
to draw a picture?
5. Social support must be available subsequent to the
disconfirmation. This is when the cognitive dissonance sets in. It is
unlikely that an isolated believer can withstand the disconfirming evidence,
not to mention the public humiliation. Some members of the flying saucer group
quickly left the fold when the world didn’t come to an end. But they were
mostly those who were not in constant contact with the main group. Those in
the core “cult” who had each other for support soon found their beliefs
to be even stronger than before they predicted the flood! Perhaps they were
wrong on the exact date, they decided. Or maybe it was just a trial run designed
by their friends from outer space to test them. Or—my favorite—because
of their efforts to inform and warn the world of its impending doom, people
reformed their ways and God decided not to destroy the earth.
It’s not just weapons of mass destruction that seems to give this administration cognitive dissonance. One could walk their tax cut plan through the same five steps, for example. That George W. Bush is a man of strong convictions is undeniable. He has acted on many of his beliefs to the point of no return. And as his prophecies fail he is surrounded by the ultimate support group, making his beliefs all that much stronger.
© copyright 2003, by Richard Bradley. All
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